Euan McColm: Reality has smashed into the SNP and it’s not clear they know what to do

When he became First Minister three months ago, Humza Yousaf opened with the obligatory “I’ll be a leader for all” speech. Throughout the campaign to succeed Nicola Sturgeon, Yousaf had been open with his supporters – the sustained majority needed to win a referendum hadn’t been achieved, it would take good, stable government to persuade those not yet seduced by the idea of independence – and so it was tempting to believe Yousaf wished to transcend petty tribalism.

And then he began demanding the UK Government give him the right to hold a second independence referendum. And, when he wasn’t doing that, he was explaining he’d demand a referendum as the price of SNP support for a minority Labour government at Westminster.

Sometimes, for Humza Yousaf contains multitudes, he caught himself and returned to the more cautious position of prioritising the development of support for his cause over demands for a referendum. At other times, he appeared to go full on fundamentalist.

It was amusing and entirely unsurprising that, after the First Minister’s speech to the SNP’s independence convention in Dundee last weekend, two estimable political writers tweeted opposing interpretations of his words. Yousaf, declared one, had ditched Nicola Sturgeon’s plan to treat the next general election as a “de facto” referendum. The other reported Yousaf would plough on with the Sturgeon wheeze “on steroids”.

Yousaf’s speech was so garbled, so full of ifs and buts, it was hardly surprising it caused such confusion.

The upshot was that no Yousaf wasn’t proposing a “de facto” referendum. A victory for the SNP would mean negotiations with the UK Government but these would be talks only about how a second referendum might be held. Yousaf’s promise to the SNP faithful was little more than “vote SNP and I’ll ask for indyref2”.

Thin though that gruel may be, it seemed enough to satisfy SNP members in the Caird Hall. But pandering to the already convinced who, regardless of what he says, hear Yousaf urging one more heave, isn’t going to build support for the SNP.

I suspect that’s not the current objective. With polls suggesting the nationalists could be on course to lose more than 20 MPs, perhaps coming second to a rejuvenated Scottish Labour, at the next general election, Yousaf has clearly decided the game is shoring up existing support. His speech last week was aimed squarely at the flag-wavers. Once a nationalist party loses the flag-wavers, it’s in real trouble.

Elsewhere in his speech, Yousaf talked about joining a march organised by “Believe in Scotland”. This was perhaps the clearest indicator that he is now panicking. Nobody serious in the upper echelons of the SNP thinks pro-independence marches at all useful other than as a way of geeing up activists. In fact, a widely held view among senior party figures is that such events may – in turning off those yet to be persuaded of the benefits if independence – do more harm than good.

Right now, Yousaf would prefer to risk turning off converts than to risk losing the faithful. This is probably wise.

Heavy losses for the SNP at the general election could hasten the end of the Yousaf era. His leadership, already considered weak, will come under intense scrutiny from ambitious colleagues if MPs start dropping like flies.

With this in mind, It would make sense for Yousaf to start levelling with his members.

If he wants to keep his job, the First Minister should be predicting heavy losses for his party and he should – however difficult he might find it – be placing the blame for this on the police investigations into the handling of party finances under the previous regime.

Then, when the losses come, he can turn to his party and say, ‘well, I warned you this would happen but here’s my big idea’.

The alternative is that Yousaf avoids the truth and, when SNP MPs fall, the cold, hard reality of defeat comes as a shock to party members who will round on him.

I wonder if Yousaf has the steel to adopt the bluntly honest approach. All the evidence of his leadership so far tells us he doesn’t.

Holyrood’s summer recess gives Yousaf a little space to think. He needs a simple, clear message on the referendum question that recognises his party has work yet to do to have earned the right to ask the question for a second time. And he needs clear, practical and achievable policies to address the priorities of an electorate caught in a desperate cost-of-living crisis.

Yousaf will return to Holyrood in September, at which point he’ll become embroiled in a court battle to challenge Scottish Secretary Alister Jack’s decision to block Holyrood reform of the Gender Recognition Act on the grounds that it negatively impacted on the 2010 Equality Act.

Yousaf has presented the legal challenge of Jack’s decision as a necessary stand against an attack on Scottish democracy. The problem he has is that a majority of Scots oppose the reforms the Scottish Government wishes to introduce. Will these voters ever be persuaded that, actually, when they think about it, Yousaf is doing the right thing?

I suspect the First Minister will struggle to shake the widely held belief that his government is fighting for the right to put rapists in women’s prisons.

Regardless of the rights or wrongs of the legislation, it’s bold of Humza Yousaf to choose to set himself against the majority of voters.

The First Minister may think life quite miserable enough right now but worse may be to come.