Leader: ‘Independence’ definition needed as UK support rises

AS IF the evident disarray across the pro-union parties in Scotland was not cheering enough for the SNP ahead of its annual conference in Inverness, a new poll showing a marked increase in voter support for independence across the UK will provide an enormous boost to party morale.

According to a ComRes survey of 2,000 voters published at the weekend, 39 per cent of people across Britain now say Scotland should be an independent country, up from 33 per cent just five months ago. The rise in support for independence among those polled in Scotland is even more striking, up 11 points from 38 per cent to 49 per cent, although the sample size here is very small.

The poll findings should perhaps come as little surprise given the preoccupation of the Labour and Conservative parties in Scotland with their own leadership battles while the Liberal Democrats continue to be punished for going into coalition with the Conservatives. First Minister Alex Salmond has thus been able to consolidate his party’s position and to dominate the new Holyrood parliament.

But such polls may mean little until debate is engaged on what exactly Mr Salmond proposes by the term “independence”. There appears to be growing support for a settlement that will give Scotland more powers than proposed under the Scotland Bill but which will stop short of full independence.

Battle has still to be joined on whether foreign policy, defence, external security and operation of the welfare system should be included in the definition of independence on which the SNP proposes to hold a referendum. And do a majority of Scots wish to have a separate currency, join the Euro, or stay with sterling?

The latest poll may indicate support for a “Max Dev” settlement – that is, one that falls some way short of full separation. That choice will almost certainly involve a radical constitutional change at UK level. The House of Lords as we know it will be obliged to give way to some sort of federal second chamber in which those issues jointly affecting all the nations and regions of the UK will be decided.

This would be a major constitutional reform by any standards and would almost certainly require ratification in a further referendum – this time across the UK. The constitution, composition and role of such a chamber will need to be fully explored and thought through if we are not to end up with a constitutional shambles.

For the moment voters continue to be principally concerned with the state of the economy and immediate threats to wellbeing posed by rising unemployment and the continuing squeeze on household budgets. But in due course it is not just the definition of “independence” that now stands to be sharply clarified, but the definition and understanding of what a new federal union would entail.