Ukraine war: Sweden and Finland eye the Nato option, but it’s a security dilemma for the West – Professor Caroline Kennedy-Pipe and Azal Ashraf

By Caroline Kennedy-Pipe and Azal Ashraf
Published 19th Apr 2022, 04:55 BST
Updated 19th Apr 2022, 07:31 BST
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Sweden and Finland joining Nato provides more of a security dilemma than it does a security solution (Picture: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)Sweden and Finland joining Nato provides more of a security dilemma than it does a security solution (Picture: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
Sweden and Finland joining Nato provides more of a security dilemma than it does a security solution (Picture: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

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The Kremlin has issued an ominous warning to Nato about the consequences for the Baltic if it allows Sweden and Finland to join the alliance, as has been widely reported.

[This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.]

Dmitry Medvedev, a former president and a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said: "There can be no more talk of any nuclear-free status for the Baltic – the balance must be restored. Until today, Russia has not taken such measures and was not going to.”

Sweden and Finland have both recently indicated their interest in joining Nato as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin said her country, which shares an 800-mile border with Russia, would decide whether to join in “weeks not months”.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is resetting the security environment in Europe. Both Sweden and Finland remained non-aligned during the near half-century of the Cold War. But within the space of less than a month, their radical policy shifts on security issues reflect similar changes across Europe – including the massive increase in defence spending proposed by Germany. This pivot to the West by the two neutral powers, along with the renewed appetite in Germany to cast aside its traditional military caution, signals a new era.

But the move to join Nato carries risks for both states, which have maintained a delicate balance of sitting with the West while not antagonising their powerful neighbour. Indeed, the two Scandinavian countries joining Nato provides more of a security dilemma than it does a security solution.

The idea of a “