If the US drops its support for Kyiv, Europe must step up or prepare to face Vladimir Putin's forces themselves

In April this year, I wrote a column in The Scotsman arguing that Ukraine had just six months to win the war. Looking back at the arguments eight months later, I was right on three points but wrong on one. The United States and Europe have indeed begun to lose patience with a war that is costing billions and is interfering with domestic elections. The chances of a successful counter-offensive were over-rated and Ukraine did indeed fail to win back substantial amounts of territory. And, thirdly, I stressed that a negotiated deal would be disastrous for Ukraine.

Where I was wrong was in thinking that a negotiated deal, however disadvantageous, would be available for Ukraine when it finally decided that it could no longer win. In fact, President Putin gave the strong impression in his press conference on December 15 that he wants to carry on and achieve his original goals. Having weathered a torrid year, which included the Wagner mutiny and being forced to relocate the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea, Putin now sees an opportunity to make real territorial gains. He also knows that the West’s capacity and willingness to sustain a long campaign is limited. Furthermore, the diversion of Western political attention – and some American military hardware – towards Israel and Gaza was an unexpected windfall for him.

Ukraine War: Why 2024 is going to be a year of reckoning for Ukraine and Europe – Tim Willasey-Wilsey